Infodump - Election Edition
Today's special interest - Who will win????
uh oh.
An election year.
Cue the feelings of dread.
Who will win - a centrist Democrat or a far-right Republican nationalist?
The truth is nobody knows right now. A lot of people will say that they do, but they don’t. Which is making a lot of people (including myself) pretty anxious.
However, if you came here for answers or comfort, you may be sorely disappointed. I can tell you that I think Kamala Harris will win (but… see previous point about people saying that they know what will happen).
But why are people panicking and guessing? It’s because when Donald Trump is involved, elections are very close.
A blast from the past
Let me take you back to 2016 (I know, it’s hard, but stay with me).
Donald Trump has pulled off a shocking victory despite losing the popular vote. On paper, the electoral college looks like a landslide - Trump won every swing state except Nevada.
But in all reality, in an election with over 125 million votes, the election was decided by less than 80,000 voters.
I won’t give you a lesson on the electoral college (there’s YouTube for that), but in our current insane system, there are “tipping point states”. These are the closest states that, if flipped, would give the other candidate the presidency via the electoral college. In 2016, the tipping point states were Michigan (Trump won by 10,204 votes), Wisconsin (won by 22,748 votes), and Pennsylvania (won by 44,292 votes). If you add up Trump’s margin of victory across those three states, you get around 77,000 votes.
Essentially, if Hillary Clinton had turned out or flipped another 80 thousand votes out across those states, she wins the election.
What could have been…
Fast forward to November 2020. Polls are very favorable for Biden leading up to the election, and turnout is expected to be record breaking. On average, polls say Biden is leading Trump nationally by 8 points, and he seems to be cruising to a landslide victory across the swing states (I’ll never forget a NYT poll that had Biden up 8 points in WI…)
However, polls underestimated Trump once again. 155 million people voted(!), and while Biden doubled Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin (4% vs 2%), the 2020 election was actually even closer than 2016.
This time around, the tipping point states were Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. If you add up Biden’s margin of victory across those three states, he really only won by about 43,000 votes. If Trump had turned out or flipped just 50,000 more voters across those states, the election would have been a tie (followed by a chaotic Trump victory due to how the electoral college works. Again, just go to YouTube).
I try not to think about this one…
But this is all conjecture really - election night in 2016 and 2020 could have gone a million different ways. But what can we learn from these elections going in to 2024?
It’s (probably) gonna be close
This time around, the polls aren’t messing around. They indicate a pure 50/50 race (2016 and 2020 were also tossups, polls just didn’t accurately reflect that at the time). So this time major pollsters seem to be hedging their bets by “herding” their result, as they do not want to underestimate Trump again.
And it’s not just the polls, practically every election expert is predicting a very close race. At present, if you flipped a coin to predict who is going to be the next president, you’d be doing the same thing as every major election model out there.
In essence, we exist at a fork in the road leading to four distinct realities -
The polls are (mostly) right this time, and Harris wins by a narrow margin across several swing states.
The polls are (mostly) right this time, and Trump wins by a narrow margin across several swing states.
The polls underestimate Trump once again - he cruises to a (relative) landslide victory and earns most, if not all, the swing states.
This time, the polls underestimate Democrats (it happened in 2012!) - Harris wins and cruises to a (relative) landslide victory and earns most, if not all, the swing states.
While 3 is very possible, Harris is more well liked than Clinton, and it doesn’t seem likely that she would underperform her numbers. So if Trump wins, it will be by very narrow margins. It’s also worth noting that the polls have never underestimated a party three times in a row.
But what about reality number 4? It does seem very tantalizing - perhaps pollsters overcorrected after 2020, or maybe they aren’t able to reach younger voters (who famously never answer their phones and vote overwhelmingly Dem). However, I wouldn’t get your hopes up - while possible, we now have two elections with Donald Trump where it remained very close. I doubt that will change.
I’m currently betting on reality #1. Kamala Harris has a lot more money and a “ground game” (essentially people knocking on doors and doing grassroot outreach to get out the vote) that seems to be huge, organized, and efficient. Trump’s ground game, however, is contracted out to a Super PAC funded by Elon Musk, and is dealing with some internal turmoil over fraudulent door knockers. Combined with other factors, like Trump’s string of absolutely abysmal media appearances, Harris’s strong support with women (who turn out at higher rates than men) and “fundamental” factors favoring Harris, and I would rather be in her position than Trump’s.
But… there is also reality 2. With the Gaza crisis, Harris’s late entry into the race, Biden’s low favorability, and the public’s perception of a poor economy, he might be able to capitalize, turn out his base and flip just enough voters to win. It’s also worth noting that Republicans are turning up early to vote at rates much much higher than in 2020, particularly in Nevada.
This may sound cliché, but if you are just dooming and glooming about this election, then vote! You can also volunteer - knock on doors, make phone calls, etc.
The election will likely be decided by a relatively small amount of voters. At this point, anything could just barely tip the scales towards one candidate or the other. You (yes, you) could decide this election.
Otherwise, you just have to sit back and wait like the rest of us…